What will gas prices be by 2009?

Gas price estimate in 2009.


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The Saudis want oil to return to ~$80 per barrel by 2009. They are ramping up production dramatically and will be trying to convince the other OPEC nations to do the same.

Why? Well, for the first time in forever demand in the USA decreased. It is in their best interest to stifle the development of alternatives and they know that high prices will only speed that up.

Not to mention some pretty vast domestic supplies that are not tapped - Colorado shale and medium grade crude. They have ways to get the shale oil out but, get this, the government doesn't have funding set aside to develop a program to lease land to the oil companies (see most recent Businessweek for this information). Same for the medium grade crude out there (quite a bit)... the government has capped the rates pipelines can charge to move oil so nobody will build a pipeline to it. (same Businessweek article). If these obvious and stupid hurdles are removed we'll have quite a bit of oil coming out of the ground for 30-50 bucks a barrel.

So... I think that prices will come down a bit more to what the fundamentals are calling for and many of the speculators are going to get hosed due to buying futures at well over 100 bucks a barrel.

 
The Saudis want oil to return to ~$80 per barrel by 2009. They are ramping up production dramatically and will be trying to convince the other OPEC nations to do the same.
Why? Well, for the first time in forever demand in the USA decreased. It is in their best interest to stifle the development of alternatives and they know that high prices will only speed that up.

Not to mention some pretty vast domestic supplies that are not tapped - Colorado shale and medium grade crude. They have ways to get the shale oil out but, get this, the government doesn't have funding set aside to develop a program to lease land to the oil companies (see most recent Businessweek for this information). Same for the medium grade crude out there (quite a bit)... the government has capped the rates pipelines can charge to move oil so nobody will build a pipeline to it. (same Businessweek article). If these obvious and stupid hurdles are removed we'll have quite a bit of oil coming out of the ground for 30-50 bucks a barrel.

So... I think that prices will come down a bit more to what the fundamentals are calling for and many of the speculators are going to get hosed due to buying futures at well over 100 bucks a barrel.
I actually caught a show on history channel this morning in regards to this. There is also a good amount of oil in the North Texas shale. It also touched on the state of OPEC and how Saudi overproduced for so long to keep prices low against everyone else and how they are trying to get that going again.

There is currently a laboratory in Colorado trying to reduce the cost of manufacturing ethanol and using different materials. Brazil has done a great job with sugar can ethanol but we just dont have the climate to grow mass amounts of sugar cane. We will come up with an answer, we just dont know which one yet.

 
there is a few BILLION barrels worth of oil in south dekota that was recently found, but it is all stuck in the rocks and has to be melted out or whatever they do to extract it, but the problem is, it won't be available for a few years...IF they don't save it for our "emergency stock"

 
Ethanol is bad news. Makes corn and grain more expensive, and results in more carbon emissions than gasoline. (Not that it matters, since global warming is BS) Oh, and rainforest deforestation as well.

 
Thanks Jacob, glad someone besides me on this forum believes the bubble will burst. India and China cannot afford large scale $130bbl oil forever.
Interesting thought on what oil valued that high would do for the industrialization of those countries...

 
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