Rosenthal's MLB notes
What other explanation could there be for what we've seen transpire this winter? Baseball owners, showing the fiscal restraint of Dennis Kozlowski on a meth bender, have doled out some of most jaw-dropping contracts in history. They've given ill-advised deals to stars (Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee), near-stars (Juan Pierre), mid-grade afterthoughts (Randy Wolf, Adam Eaton) and erstwhile waiver fodder (Gary Matthews Jr.). So sorting out the worst of the worst is a taxing endeavor.
Nonetheless, we're here to do just that. What follows are the five absolute worst free-agent signings of the off-season. Oh, and for good measure we're reveal the only contract of the winter that's actually sensible for the most part. Onward ...
The worst
1. Gary Matthews Jr., CF, Angels, five years, $50M
This is a guy who was acquired off waivers in 2003 and signed to a minor league contract as recently as 2004. Matthews is coming off a nifty season for the Rangers, but there are a couple of reasons for concern. One, his production was built upon a fluky .313 batting average compiled while playing half his games in one of baseball's best parks for hitters, and, two, his numbers last season are at odds with the rest of his career. Defensively, he makes the occasional circus grab, but overall he's a mediocre glove man in center. He'll come back to earth with the bat, continue to lose range as he ages and not come even remotely close to returning value on the dollar.
2. Juan Pierre, CF, Dodgers, five years, $45M
Juan Pierre has long been solidly overrated, and this ill-considered contract only reinforces that notion. His speed helps him make up for the fact that gets poor reads and takes bad routes in the outfield — on balance, he's nothing special with the glove. Pierre steals a lot of bases, but, in terms of his success rate, he's just a couple of ticks above the break-even point. So he's not contributing that much with his wheels. With the bat, he posted solid OBPs in his first two seasons in Florida, but most years he's not reaching base at an acceptable clip (which makes him a poor option for the leadoff spot). Oh, and his power is nonexistent. He'll create lots of outs at the plate, and he won't make up for it in the field. For five years.
3. Carlos Lee, OF, Astros, six years, $100M
(Donna Carson / Associated Press)
Lee is a solid right-handed power source who will enjoy hitting in Minute Maid. However, he's a disaster with the glove, and "El Caballo" will be 36 years old by the time this contract ends. That last point is important because Lee isn't the type of player who is likely to age well (that's to say, he's not exactly the embodiment of ascetic reserve at the buffet table). So he's going to be beyond horrible in the field by the time this contract winds down, and, of course, the Astros won't be able to stow him away at DH. It's also worth noting that Lee, despite toiling for his entire career in parks that benefit right-handed hitters, has slugged better than .500 only twice.
4. Adam Eaton, RHP, Phillies, three years, $24M
Eaton in his career has been on the disabled list six times (he's averaged fewer than 100 innings pitched in each of the last two seasons), and he's never posted a sub-4.00 ERA (although he's spent almost his entire career in the run-suppressing environs of Qualcomm and Petco). Even if he does defy the odds and manage to stay healthy for the life of this deal, he's going to be victimized by the tendencies of his new home park. Expect lots of homers allowed and lots of time on the DL.
5. Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, Dodgers, two years, $18.5M
On the whole, Garciaparra had a solid season in 2006. However, he faded badly in the second half (.229 AVG/.286 OBP/.408 SLG after the break), and it's worth noting that Dodger Stadium, since the foul territory was reduced a couple of years ago, is no longer a pitcher's haven. He'll forever have injury concerns and platoon issues, and he's 33 years old. To boot, he hasn't adapted well to first base, and his offensive numbers, relative to his new position, won't be anything special.
The best (and there's only one ...)
1. Moises Alou, OF, Mets, one year, $8.5M
In this overheated market — and when you're the deep-pocketed Mets — a one-year, $8.5-million pact is basically free. Alou has poor fielding range these days, and he's gimpy. However, he can still rake (.304 AVG/.371 OBP/.548 SLG over the last three seasons). The Mets badly need better production from the outfield corners, and they also badly need help against left-handed pitching. Alou betters them — by a lot — on both counts. This deal is further evidence that Omar Minaya has developed into one of the smartest GMs in the game today.