Impassable roads, no water, closed businesses will be part of scenarioPalm Springs could become one of the best-informed cities in Southern California on the effects of the region's most likely catastrophe - a major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.
A federally funded program led by the U.S. Geological Survey has chosen Palm Springs as one of two Southern California cities for an intensive study on the effects of a magnitude 7.8 quake on the southern San Andreas Fault.
Scientists consider a major temblor on the section of the fault that runs through the Coachella Valley about 150 years overdue and a near inevitability. It potentially would be the most destructive natural disaster in U.S. history.
"It's like we have this big elephant sitting in the valley and somebody's got to talk about it," said La Quinta resident Susan Cox, who attended a meeting of the California Seismic Safety Commission at the Westin Mission Hills Resort and Spa in Rancho Mirage on Thursday.
The Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project study will look not only at how homes, businesses and other infrastructure will stand or fall in a nearly two-minute temblor but at the ripple effects on public health and the economy going beyond the immediate.
"This is your earthquake," said USGS seismologist Lucille Jones, chief scientist for the project.
"It's the Coachella Valley communities that are going to be most affected by this event. So we wanted (a case study city) here."
The other city chosen by the project for more intensive study is Torrance. Jones said scientists wanted to include a city in the Los Angeles area not directly impacted by a southern San Andreas earthquake but that will have to deal with regional economic issues that follow such a disaster.
A team of scientists including economists, engineers, sociologists, seismologists and geologists already has met with Palm Springs emergency and city officials and business community leaders, Jones said.
Two or three more round-table meetings likely will occur in coming months as well as more one-on-one interactions between project members and relevant Palm Springs officials, Jones said.
Engineers will discuss Palm Springs' housing stock with city building officials - the ages of homes and businesses, how they're built and other factors, Jones said. Then, using scientific data of expected ground movements from a major quake, predictions can be made about how buildings will stand and fall.
But study also will focus on less immediately obvious impacts - closed businesses; no water; broken, impassable roadways and other lifelines; and weeks of potential isolation from the outside world.
Of 30 cooling centers in Riverside County, only five have back-up power generation, county emergency services coordinator Kathleen Henderson said.
Were the Big One to occur during scorching summer temperatures, "You could kill more people with the heat than you're killing with the earthquake," Jones said.
A major quake could create thousands of fire ignition points through downed power lines, broken gas mains and more.
"My personal nightmare would be to have this earthquake during Santa Ana wind conditions," Jones said. "That makes the problem actually so difficult that we are specifying in our scenario that it is not during a Santa Ana condition because we can't deal with it. The fire would dominate everything we are looking at. But in reality, it's something we've all got to consider."
The project will allow Palm Springs to better prepare for a disaster, city emergency services coordinator John Hardcastle said.
"(Jones) is going to be able to utilize her team to point out to us where we might be deficient, where we need to beef up our response capability, things we might not have even considered," Hardcastle said.
Though specific to Palm Springs, other desert communities "will be able to see themselves in the scenario," Jones said.
The project plans to have its regional report with the specific Palm Springs and Torrance scenarios done by April, she said.
The plan will then be the basis for a major emergency preparedness exercise throughout Southern California later in 2008 that will include communities, schools and businesses, she said.
Seismic Safety Commissioners on Thursday heard from local emergency managers and representatives of neighborhood readiness programs in local gated and retirement communities.
"We must all learn to be our own first responders," Rancho Mirage emergency services coordinator Wendy Phillips said.
The vice-chairman of the commission is Rancho Mirage resident Dennis Mileti.
"This is ground zero for the next great Southern California earthquake," he said. "We'll experience the most severe shaking, and this is where people need to start doing things to get ready for it."
