Current events discussion

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Where did I say fake?

My theoretical Rob Deer chart would include nothing but facts...just leaving out some negatives...

Say 1947!!!!!!

 

[Buck 5,000+ posts]

@Jimi77

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

Say 1947!!!!!!

Ahhh. the TROLL has returned.
Doesn't even understand real versus nominal pricing, averages, or simple percentage calculations, but HAS to jump into the conversation in SOME way.

Like a little child, screaming "notice ME!!!!"

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Ahhh. the TROLL has returned.
Doesn't even understand real versus nominal pricing, averages, or simple percentage calculations, but HAS to jump into the conversation in SOME way.

Like a little child, screaming "notice ME!!!!"

NOTICE M........... Hey!!! That's not funny. Neither is your tired circular routine.

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

CPI has been fake "forever." Lots of articles have been written about it's shortcomings. Clearly the charts on groceries are off by a mile. The claim that the average American only worked an extra half hour to cover the increase in grocery prices is absolutely preposterous. Or maybe we all missed out on one hell of a pay raise.

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

When you suggested cherry-picking stats to create a graph that didn't represent reality.
That would be "faking it" or creating "fake" information.

No different than the cpi ignoring substitutions...as in people switching to a lower priced similar item...

Not even your beloved economists take cpi as 100% gospel

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

OK.
So then the numbers being used to claim Trump's success are similarly fake, and any and all comparisons we make are bullshit.
Got it.

View attachment 61983

No different than the cpi ignoring substitutions...as in people switching to a lower priced similar item...

Not even your beloved economists take cpi as 100% gospel

Could you make a slight effort and size your pictures more reasonably?

And answer this question: If the price a particular item changes, do you THINK the price of a "substitution" item might ALSO change?
If the price of Oreos goes up, what are the chances the price of Hydrox will go up?
Smuckers jelly goes up. Do you think the generic brands will follow suit?
What about gas? If Exxon gas goes up, will BP go up too?
Oscar Meyer bacon goes up. Will Jimmy Dean go up too?

With your logic, we'd be paying $4.59 for brand-name jelly, but $0.25 for generic.
Not how it works.
MATH.

Besides, they don't just pick ONE product at each store to represent the category.
They pick multiples. Not just Captain Crunch, but Frosted Flakes, POST Raisin Bran, Marshmallow Mateys, Great Value Raisin Bran.

It's how they manage to get 80,000 products to determine price movements from.

Oh, and it's balanced for products that most people generally use. So that bottle of iodine doesn't sway the average as much as a gallon of milk.

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

If the price a particular item changes, do you THINK the price of a "substitution" item might ALSO change?

They don't account for substitution...

So if kraft Mac and cheese raises to 1.50 from $1 and enough people switch to a generic brand that only went up to $.80 from $.50...the cpi sees that as the price of Mac and cheese went down...when in reality it went up

 

[Buck 5,000+ posts]

About the drones and stuff

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

They don't account for substitution...

So if kraft Mac and cheese raises to 1.50 from $1 and enough people switch to a generic brand that only went up $.80 from $.50...the cpi sees that as the price of Mac and cheese went down...when in reality it went up

The fact that they use multiples of the same product accounts for the "substitution factor".

They aren't counting who bought WHAT, they are counting the PRICES.
No matter how you calculate your mac n chees example, it shows a price increase.

1.0-1.5 = increase
.50-.80 = increase
1.5-2.3 = increase

And they do the tabulations several times a month to smooth out any major changes that occur in the short term (like gas spiking for a holiday weekend, then settling back in, or a product being sold at closeout pricing to unload it).

Regardless of those facts, the whole CPI think is a big sham and the only thing that matters is your personal experience. How long did it take you to shovel this morning?

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

The fact that they use multiples of the same product accounts for the "substitution factor".

Just Google cpi substitution bias...You're clinging at this point...you may be the only one that doesn't know about it

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

About the drones and stuff

I dig the idea of UFOs, etc, but where is the "breaking news"? It's just a bunch of people claiming stuff exists and that they saw things.
The same crap the world has been hearing since before I was born.

 

[Buck 5,000+ posts]

I dig the idea of UFOs, etc, but where is the "breaking news"? It's just a bunch of people claiming stuff exists and that they saw things.
The same crap the world has been hearing since before I was born.

Yeah, that's usually how reality works. Humans see things and tell other humans, so all humans are in less danger.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

Just Google cpi substitution bias...You're clinging at this point...you may be the only one that doesn't know about it

The CPI doesn't ask people what they are buying (i.e. Smuckers vs Great Value), it's only looking at price movement.

Are you saying the prices of goods haven't gone up over time since retailers started offering generic and cheaper substitutions?

Your Mac and Cheese example shows the price of Mac N Cheese has gone up whether you buy generic or Kraft.

If everyone in the US switched ONLY to buying generic/cheaper products today, their personal expenditure would drop. Let's say their expenses drop form $400/week to $350.
The non-generic goods would no longer sell, and disappear from the shelves. They would also drop from the CPI calculation.
This is a reasonable expectation, right?

Fast forward three months, and the generic goods go up in price. Your weekly expense goes up to $375.
Would you consider that a price increase because you are paying more, or consider it "no change" since you are still paying less that the original $400/week?
Of COURSE you will say you are paying more per week, because you ARE. Changing your product choice didn't change the movement of the retail price, only your personal expense.

Averaging prices does not account for which specific items people buy, nor should it.
If only two cars exist, and one costs $15,000, and the other is $25,000, the average price of a car is $20,000
It doesn't matter that they sold 5,000 of the cheap one and only 3,000 of the expensive one.
It also doesn't matter if the following year 1,000 people switched over to the cheaper car. The average price is still $20,000.
Substitution doesn't change that.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

Yeah, that's usually how reality works. Humans see things and tell other humans, so all humans are in less danger.

View attachment 61984

My childhood prepared me for the absolute eventual reality that I was going to fall into quicksand and have to know how to survive that nightmare.
By this age, I feel like I was overprepared.