What is?

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

Nothing you've cut and pasted goes me saying it's an estimation

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

Nothing you've cut and pasted goes me saying it's an estimation

It kind of does:
"A complete count of employment and wages is available, classified by industry and based on quarterly reports filed by employers for over 7 million establishments subject to unemployment insurance laws."

This speaks to your attempt to say that the data is merely a shot in the dark and tells us nothing about reality.
And each day, the data becomes more precise and easy to collect, sort, and generate usable numbers.
Computers.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

The US Census is not really that small of a sample size. Regardless, what you state would apply to data collected under all administrations. A level playing field.

Unless you're suggesting the US Census and the BoLS provide false data in order to make one party look better than another since 1947?

If this census is the same one that mails out dollar bills then it is flawed and inaccurate.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Yes, I "blindly" accept what they do. Just like you "blindly" accept that you are filling your car's tank with gas and not water when you go to the pump. Just like you "blindly" accept that you're getting a beef burger and not a shit sandwich when you go to Sonic for dinner. Just like you "blindly" accept you're getting acetaminophen and not starch when you take that Tylenol.

The bureau has a budget of $655 million, and a staff of 2,500 to compile and report all the data they have, and have been in operation since 1884. Unless you or anyone else can provide a good reason not to believe the numbers, I will accept them. It's a logical thing to do, unless you personally have some magical power and can question and research everything that happens in your world before you believe it.

DO you have a reason to disbelieve? HAVE you done studies that prove them wrong? DO you have evidence of falsification of stats by the bureau within the last 138 years? DO you have 5,200,000 man-hours a year just to check the work of the one bureau? Do you have even more to check the gas supply chain all the way to the pump you go to? How about the beef supply chain to Sonic? Chemical analysis on that Tylenol?
Or, are you still working on fire and gravity before you move on to the more modern stuff?

If you're going to say you question everything, then tell us how you actually do your process. If you don't have a process and don't actually question and test everything for truth, then don't play that card. It's a childish play and can only backfire.


I say you're fabricating an explanation for the job increases because you toss out one of the old "lazy welfare recipients" standards that people love to trot out without any backing argument whatsoever. Christ, I'm STILL hearing about welfare recipients "waving their checks in people's faces", when they haven't done checks in decades.
WHAT is your basis of explanation that welfare recipients just decided to go back to work? Did you read it in the news? Did you do a study? How many people in what locations gave you info?

HOW would your theory explain that MORE people went back to work than were put out of work by COVID? More people back to work than in a 50-year span? Do you suggest the job openings have been there waiting for 50 years and are just finally getting filled because people "lost their welfare"?
That's like saying you went to get gas and one day put 30 gallons in your tank when you've run it dry in the past and only were ever able to put 27 gallons in. Where'd that extra space come from?
Why do YOU consider it a "likely" reason, but no one else has that theory?
What's your basis other than it COULD be something that happens?
In the case of more people going back to work than have been working, it would have to be new job openings that are getting filled.

This nor'easter we got COULD have been caused by a god who is angry and wants to punish a few people by hurting hundreds of thousands, but global warming is the far more likely culprit.

Other than saying it's among your stupidest premises yet, I'll simply ignore the "blame Biden for COVID" nonsense.

You ignored and refused to respond to my points as if they could never happen. You then responded as if you took my post personally. If you can't have an adult conversation without completely ignoring the other parties opinions then you should not engage in conversation.

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

So a quarterly report is 100% accurate data for monthly jobs numbers

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

If this census is the same one that mails out dollar bills then it is flawed and inaccurate.

"A complete count of employment and wages is available, classified by industry and based on quarterly reports filed by employers for over 7 million establishments subject to unemployment insurance laws."

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

You ignored and refused to respond to my points as if they could never happen. You then responded as if you took my post personally. If you can't have an adult conversation without completely ignoring the other parties opinions then you should not engage in conversation.

Just about anything "could" happen, but if you want the "could" to become a plausible reason or excuse, then you have to back it up with something.

You are playing the classic "the dog ate my homework" scenario. Yeah. it COULD have happened. So, show me the remaining shreds that he didn't eat.

Sure, it COULD be that all those people suddenly decided to go "back" to work as their welfare dried up , but it provides no explanation for what was happening to the jobs for the past decades while they were on welfare. Once again: MORE people are working than were laid off due to the pandemic.
Where did these jobs suddenly come from if it isn't from job creation?

Should we discuss the whole nonsensical theory of people deciding to go back to work because the welfare dried up theory, or just let it go now as ridiculous?

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

So a quarterly report is 100% accurate data for monthly jobs numbers

"A complete count of employment and wages is available, classified by industry and based on quarterly reports filed by employers for over 7 million establishments subject to unemployment insurance laws."

Yes, a quarterly report can tell you what has happened over the course of a year.
With an SSN, I can look up someone's quarterly wage reports. If I see 4 quarters worked in 2021 with the dollar amounts, i can tell what they made in a year. I can also tell how many hours they worked, and the likelihood of when they started a new job within the year.

Are you thinking we have to have a daily tally and report of every job in the country to know what happened over the course of a year?

Your original argument that the data is wildly inaccurate guesstimation based on a very small data set is collapsing like a dying star.
How far into that black hole are you going to travel to support the narrative?

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Just about anything "could" happen, but if you want the "could" to become a plausible reason or excuse, then you have to back it up with something.

You are playing the classic "the dog ate my homework" scenario. Yeah. it COULD have happened. So, show me the remaining shreds that he didn't eat.

Sure, it COULD be that all those people suddenly decided to go "back" to work as their welfare dried up , but it provides no explanation for what was happening to the jobs for the past decades while they were on welfare. Once again: MORE people are working than were laid off due to the pandemic.
Where did these jobs suddenly come from if it isn't from job creation?

Should we discuss the whole nonsensical theory of people deciding to go back to work because the welfare dried up theory, or just let it go now as ridiculous?

You keep saying "where did the jobs suddenly come from" when you should be asking "where did these workers suddenly come from".

I didn't say welfare, you did. I said assistance.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

"A complete count of employment and wages is available, classified by industry and based on quarterly reports filed by employers for over 7 million establishments subject to unemployment insurance laws."

So is it the same census that hands out dollar bills?

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

So what happened over the course of the past 4 quarters gives you 100% stone cold numbers for next month's jobs/unemployment numbers...

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

So what happened over the course of the past 4 quarters gives you 100% stone cold numbers for next month's jobs/unemployment numbers...

Clearly not, but we work with the best data we have available. Nobody is going to create an army of bean counters to account for each and every job in real time and if they did the neoconservatives would be up in arms about it.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

You keep saying "where did the jobs suddenly come from" when you should be asking "where did these workers suddenly come from".

I didn't say welfare, you did. I said assistance.

Assistance is welfare when you are talking SNAP, TANF, or any of the programs that help people without jobs survive.
Unemployment Insurance is not assistance. As the name states, it’s insurance.

I will ask: If unemployment dipped lower than it has been in 50 years, but you think no new jobs have been created, then exactly what jobs are being filled above and beyond the ones laid off during COVID?

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

Clearly not, but we work with the best data we have available. Nobody is going to create an army of bean counters to account for each and every job in real time and if they did the neoconservatives would be up in arms about it.

That's all I've been saying...those numbers are estimates...not hard facts like Rob was trying to prove

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Assistance is welfare when you are talking SNAP, TANF, or any of the programs that help people without jobs survive.
Unemployment Insurance is not assistance. As the name states, it’s insurance.

I will ask: If unemployment dipped lower than it has been in 50 years, but you think no new jobs have been created, then exactly what jobs are being filled above and beyond the ones laid off during COVID?

Yeah, I don't know anything about the assistance. I never stopped working.

I didn't say I think NO NEW JOBS HAVE BEEN CREATED. I ask questions... Where did all these people come from suddenly who are willing to work? If there are so many "new jobs" that means, to fill them, there would need to be an equal amount of people for those jobs. Weren't these people there the whole time or did we suddenly have an influx of new workers? If these people were there the whole time... what were they doing BEFORE these "new jobs" appeared out of thin air??