Ranking the best center fieldersposted: Friday, February 1, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry
filed under: MLB
Before I present the list of candidates for Best Center Fielder of the Next 5 Years, I'll tell you this: there are only three serious candidates for the No. 1 spot. Maybe four. See if you can spot them ...
Player Age OBP SLG OPS+ WARP
Curtis Granderson 27 .361 .552 136 10.4
B.J. Upton 23 .386 .508 136 5.7
Josh Hamilton 27 .368 .554 131 3.3
Hunter Pence 25 .360 .539 130 6.2
Nick Swisher 27 .381 .455 127 5.6
Carlos Beltran 31 .353 .525 126 8.4
Aaron Rowand 30 .374 .515 123 7.8
Torii Hunter 32 .334 .505 122 5.5
Ichiro Suzuki 34 .396 .431 122 8.7
Grady Sizemore 25 .390 .462 122 6.3
Those are the top 10 center fielders of 2007, OPS+-wise (and it's a long drop from Sizemore to No. 11 Marlon Byrd). Looking at a list of players with at least 50 games in center field last season, I see three others who should be considered, if only because of their youth: Arizona's Chris Young, New York's Melky Cabrera and Chicago's Felix Pie. One might also argue for Vernon Wells, who certainly is paid like a top-10 guy and should bounce back this year from his shoulder injury.
Running through the guys in the table ...
• As a hitter, Granderson was a bit over his head last season, but he's obviously an outstanding player. What shocks me is that Upton, four years younger, was just as good with the bat. The Rays spent far too long realizing that Upton's not an infielder, and it's impossible to know how he'll fare in center field, long term. But he's always looked like a center fielder to me, and I have a faith-based belief that he'll be just fine out there.
• Speaking of impossible, does anybody have any idea if Hamilton can do for a whole season what he did last season in roughly half a season? Hamilton turns 27 this spring, and he's never played more than 101 games in a professional season. I suspect we're all pulling for him, and he's one of the reasons we think the Rangers have a real shot at second place this year. But we simply need to see him stay healthy and stay clean for a year or two before we consider him among the best in his chosen profession.
• There's little point in questioning Pence's bat, as he's hit everywhere he's played. Is he a center fielder, though? The Astros don't seem to be sure; he didn't become a full-time center fielder until late in the 2006 (minor league) season. The scouts don't seem to be sure; at least when he was in the minors, opinions were divided. The numbers aren't sure; he did well in BP's Fielding Runs Above Average last season, but not well in John Dewan's +/-. Earlier I mentioned that maybe there are four candidates for No. 1 on our list of future center fielders. Pence is the maybe, and it's because of the questions about his defense.
• Beltran's also one of the smartest baserunners around, which doesn't necessarily show up here. The guy's just a great baseball player, period. Injuries remain a concern.
• Swisher played mostly right field with the A's, but according to this story he'll get most of his action with the White Sox in center. Initially, at least. My guess is he winds up in one of the corners within a few years.
• Rowand's a fine player, but he's 30, his style of play doesn't generally lead to productive 30s, and ditto for his .343 career OBP. He may still be a good and valuable player in 2011 and '12. But one of the 10 best center fielders in the majors?
• Same goes for Hunter, who's older than Rowand, just as OBP challenged, and not as good with the glove as his reputation suggests.
• If we're looking out five seasons, Ichiro obviously doesn't belong here ... but among the 34-year-old stars in the majors right now, I think he might be the most likely to retain much of his value for another five years. I'm not saying he's going to keep hitting .350 and stealing 35 bags and winning Gold Gloves every season. I'm saying he's better than Kenny Lofton ever was, and Lofton's still playing at 40.
• And finally we come to Sizemore, and the most controversial thing I'm going to write today ... Sizemore is not a good center fielder. Am I sure about that? No. But I've got two systems in front of me -- BP's Fielding Runs and Dewan's +/- -- and both suggest that Sizemore's average with the glove. At best. Yes, they could be wrong. But these days the metrics have become sophisticated enough that if they come to a consensus about a player and you disagree, you have to figure out why they're wrong (it used to be the other way around).
Last summer I wrote something about the Granderson-Sizemore comparison, and I came down (just barely) for Sizemore because he's 17 months younger. But his defense now gives me pause. While I think they'll be roughly the same hitter in 2008, I also think Granderson will play Gold Glove-caliber defense and Sizemore won't. If the Indians had a good center fielder in the minors, I might even predict that Sizemore will find a new position in a few years. Which leads to my top 10 ...
1. B.J. Upton
2. Curtis Granderson
3. Grady Sizemore
4. Hunter Pence
5. Chris Young
6. Carlos Beltran
7. Melky Cabrera
8. Felix Pie
9. Josh Hamilton
10. Jay Bruce
Perhaps I've been too aggressive here with the youngest players. I do feel good about Upton, but the others -- Young, Cabrera, Pie -- really haven't been good yet in the majors. Hamilton's obviously a wild card, and perhaps there should be a place on this list for Wells. Meanwhile, there are a bunch of hot center fielders coming up, and so I've strayed from convention and filled in that last slot myself. It just seems to me that when you've got a player who's the consensus No. 1 prospect, he's your guy. Better, though, over the next five years than Wells and Rowand?