Not really, no. If I knew how to make a dollar betting on the collapse of pension funds, I'd put a couple grand there. Defined benefit pension funds, imo, is not a sustainable model. Think about it, when the company is doing worse and scratching up dimes it has to pay the most to the retirees.
The models the actuaries use are/should be transparent. While they still may be worthless, they are transparent by both the union (or other employee rep) side and the management side. I doubt you or I could see the models that define the companies contribution to defined benefit programs, however.
I haven't heard/read much about precisely how Madoff fixed the books. He had a model, which he disclosed and followed. This is how people started figuring it out. He told investors what he was doing...the returns where the issue. This is the biggest difference between finance and accounting. Accounting is past, finance is future. You don't model accounting, as it has already happened.
Thanks a lot for the input.The parallels between this and the subprime fiasco are worth noting. However, no one wants to blame themselves because they believe they are entitled to a house, 2 cars and a dog. Just as some investors believe they are entitled to 20% annual returns.
Now I actually have to pick out some articles or reports to read, so I can note some specifics. This helped me formulate a direction to go with it though.
