I make bets off assumptions every day. I assume the market is going to do one thing, and it either does it or not.
For instance, I am assuming that Lowe's is going to beat earnings estimates this quarter based on knowledge I have for sales in my particular region. From these facts, I am speculating an increase in the price of Lowe's stock. In May, when they release earnings, I will either be handsomely paid, or lose my shirt based on my assumptions on the market, Lowe's stock, and the health of the economy in a month.
Because the assumption can be revealed, it makes it a valid argument. A poll or other mechanism which would reveal which users on the forum has an ID card and which do not. The results of my assumption can be tested.
As for my spelling, I pay someone to do my spelling for me. Actually, you do as well since she is a government employee.