I'm sure I'm wrong, but my understanding of global markets is lets say for example Country C stops buying widgets from Country U. Country C will instead buy their widgets from County B. But now Countries EU, M & J need widgets because Country C bought up Country B's widget supply. So in steps Country U to sell their widgets to Countries EU, M & J.
No need to correct me, I'm sure that as usual I'm wrong.
That makes the assumption of a finite supply of widgets to be had.
Let's look at a recent example of a supposed finite supply of product: Hand sanitizer. What happened when there was not enough hand sanitizer for everyone that wanted it? There were suddenly a whole lot of companies that could make it, and did so in a hurry.
Nothing is finite when there is a demand, it seems.
"But soybeans are a commodity that can spoil", you say. Well. they can be stored for up to a year, and a certain VERY high volume producer of soybeans, well call it "BZ" has a glut now, thanks to record harvests.
Wildly, the glut is enough to not only cover what "U" is no longer providing to "C", but to also continue to supply all of BZ's REGULAR customers, AND still have surplus.
No need for EU, M, or J to buy from U, since the leader of U has made EU, M & J, dislike U very much.
Verifiable data about the hypothetical BZ and their soybeans:
BZ is facing a potential soybean surplus in 2026 with a record harvest projected around
177-182 million metric tons, significantly higher than the prior year, leading to expectations of massive exports (over 112 million tons) and concerns about oversupply,
pushing prices down despite strong "C" demand. This "extra" amount is the difference between this record crop and previous levels, resulting in
record-high ending stocks and increased pressure on global markets.
Key Figures & Projections for 2025/2026:
- Production: Estimates range from 177.1 to over 182 million tons, a significant increase from 2024/2025.
- Exports: Expected to hit a record 112 million tons or more, mainly to China.
- Ending Stocks: Projected to be the highest in nine years, according to Abiove
Ending stocks the highest in 9 years, DESPITE covering the difference in product that will now sit rotting in U, since no one is buying. As the soybean growers in "U" faced a catastrophic year that puts many out of business. That's winning, if ever there WAS winning!
