Current events discussion

[RobGMN Premium Member]

That IS my point, people change all the time. You are speaking as if things will continue as they did under Biden.

What? I'm talking about Trudeau's reaction to Trump's tariff "bluff".
Trudeau called his "bluff" the last time around, and essentialy "won" when Trump agreed to drop the tariffs.

I asked you honestly what made you believe Trudeau would buckle under THIS TIME to the exact same "bluff".
Can you answer that question?

Because, like half of this country, Trump is also tired of the U.S. getting the raw end.

OK, but "half this country" isn't making decisions on behalf of Trudeau, who is facing the same threats as he did in 2018.
The question above is even more relevant here.

I assume nothing. It means he was receptive.

I don't live there Rob.

View attachment 61648

OK. You said "depending on area". If you are betting on Falmouth specifically, then say so.
BTW - Nice job of picking Falmouth, since it seems to be very remote, and you likely got prices from highway gas stations.
A nickel bet that when you praise Trump for gas prices, you picked the CHEAPEST station you could find.

Like a gambler who will speak for years about their $10,000 win, but never once mention it cost them $75,000 to hit the $10K biggie.

Our drug problem??? Other countries are ALLOWING these drugs through their countries to enter ours and it is OUR PROBLEM????

Yes. OUR drug problem. Demand creates supply. If demand drugs, someone is going to fill that demand in some way, shape, or form. If they are stopped, then someone else steps in.
We demand cheap goods, someone is going to fill that demand. If they are stopped, someone else steps in.
It's how commerce works, whether the supplier is local, or international.

Remember prohibition from your history books?

adverb
adverb: greatly

1. by a considerable amount; very much.

Up to 4 years.

OK. So you don't want to commit to anything, but want to bet on it it?
You offered the claim as a condition of a bet but won't even specify terms?
So much for confidence in the claim.
"Might as well say "I bet someone will win the Superbowl by having more points at the end of the game".

Why do you think you get to dictate how people answer your questions. If you ask a question, let them answer and stfu.

Why answer if you are simply offering a non-answer?
That's very non-conversational for someone who is always complaining that there isn't "conversation" here.

We are at 390M. It should hit 700+M.

So you're betting it will hit 700+ million barrels under Trump, and he'll do it in 4 years?
Let's make it 2 years as a "rebound" and you've got a bet.

An inventory "rebound" is usually considered a few weeks or months, so a rebound of the SPR should take no longer than half of his time in office.

I don't want you to take any bet. It's too much hassle to deal with a person like you who will always find some way to weasel out of payment.

Interesting, since you chose your "payment" as something that you can lie about paying, but mine is instantly verifiable.
Equally interesting since one of my two previous bets offered money in equity to an attorney YOU would choose.

Explain why you have departed from your averages trend and are only discussing peaks. The line has peaks and valleys so shouldn't you draw the line through the averages? Or the middle?

Read the whole post. I acknowledged that the green line you drew was a sort-of attempt to hit the averages.
Despite that, it showed a departure from the trendline starting in 2019.

So you can't claim monkey business on my part, create three lines: One through the true average of the years, one across the peaks, one across the troughs, and share a screen snip here.

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

Gee I wonder why the voters support "Tariff Trump." FYI, we don't see the decline in MFG jobs start under Clinton because computer manufacturing didn't move offshore until the late 90s-00s. Looks like voters would like to see those 5-6 million jobs return to the US.

All Employees, Manufacturing

Graph and download economic data for All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP) from Jan 1939 to Oct 2024 about headline figure, establishment survey, manufacturing, employment, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

Yes. It certainly can vary with your "trading strategy", but even if you start your trend years before Trump took office, and drew a trend line across the peaks, 2019 is a reversal of the rising trend.
Same if you used only from the day Trump took office and drew the line across the peaks.
The only way to say that the trend didn't reverse is to flip the chart upside down.

I've never seen anyone call a departure from a rising trend as "continuation of the trend" liek I am seeing on this forum.
Maybe it's just "alternative definitions", lol

It's a reversal, but there is no reason to believe it's permanent reversal just like Amazon isn't going to tank just because they had an off quarter. Hell, your trendline actually suggests that MFG jobs would return to the trendline, which they did under Biden who kept Trump's tariffs in place.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

What? I'm talking about Trudeau's reaction to Trump's tariff "bluff".
Trudeau called his "bluff" the last time around, and essentialy "won" when Trump agreed to drop the tariffs.

I asked you honestly what made you believe Trudeau would buckle under THIS TIME to the exact same "bluff".
Can you answer that question?

Wait a minute, you said Trudeau called Trumps bluff the first time. That is not true. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and 10% on Aluminum in May of 2018 and it was lifted a year later in May of 2019 after reaching a deal.

OK, but "half this country" isn't making decisions on behalf of Trudeau, who is facing the same threats as he did in 2018.
The question above is even more relevant here.

More of Canada is behind Trump now

OK. You said "depending on area". If you are betting on Falmouth specifically, then say so.

Yeah, I only live in one area. Comprehend better Rob.

Yes. OUR drug problem. Demand creates supply. If demand drugs, someone is going to fill that demand in some way, shape, or form. If they are stopped, then someone else steps in.
We demand cheap goods, someone is going to fill that demand. If they are stopped, someone else steps in.
It's how commerce works, whether the supplier is local, or international.

Remember prohibition from your history books?

So it's OUR problem because drug addicts demand China Fentanyl and DEMAND that we import it illegally through Canada and Mexico. Makes since to me.

OK. So you don't want to commit to anything, but want to bet on it it?
You offered the claim as a condition of a bet but won't even specify terms?
So much for confidence in the claim.
"Might as well say "I bet someone will win the Superbowl by having more points at the end of the game".

None of us are psychic.

Why answer if you are simply offering a non-answer?
That's very non-conversational for someone who is always complaining that there isn't "conversation" here.


So you're betting it will hit 700+ million barrels under Trump, and he'll do it in 4 years?
Let's make it 2 years as a "rebound" and you've got a bet.

Why, because you think the numbers would be more in your favor at that point? Make it 6 years.

An inventory "rebound" is usually considered a few weeks or months, so a rebound of the SPR should take no longer than half of his time in office.

The rebound can be however long it takes to reach a number.

Interesting, since you chose your "payment" as something that you can lie about paying, but mine is instantly verifiable.
Equally interesting since one of my two previous bets offered money in equity to an attorney YOU would choose.

Shiiiiit I would take photos of my ballot.

Read the whole post. I acknowledged that the green line you drew was a sort-of attempt to hit the averages.
Despite that, it showed a departure from the trendline starting in 2019.

So you can't claim monkey business on my part, create three lines: One through the true average of the years, one across the peaks, one across the troughs, and share a screen snip here.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

It's a reversal, but there is no reason to believe it's permanent reversal just like Amazon isn't going to tank just because they had an off quarter. Hell, your trendline actually suggests that MFG jobs would return to the trendline, which they did under Biden who kept Trump's tariffs in place.

Except it would have to happen in one year, and we already discounted the COVID trough.
Disregard COVID. if the trend continued, 2020 would have seen a .01% increase.
Let's go nuts, and say that it surged and matched the highest growth we had seen under Trump: 6%.
That gives him an average of 4.66% per year growth.

That would lower Bidens first-year growth to only 11% (again, taking COVID out of the math).
That leaves us with an estimated 15% year-over-year growth.

But I guess we have to agree whether trends can be an indicator of the future, or not.
You mentioned a lack of value in them, but then also discussed the overall trend of mfg jobs leaving the country going back to 1990's.

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

That would lower Bidens first-year growth to only 11% (again, taking COVID out of the math

You can't take covid out the math especially with biden's 1st year numbers...that's when all covid nonsense was starting to relax

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

Pretty much all of biden's "great numbers" came from the covid lockdown bounce back...

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

Because this time the tariffs are stated as being in response to illegal immigration...immagration is something Trudeau is under fire from even his own party for in Canada

Here's some interesting points in regards to Canadian Tariffs. Saudi/OPEC seems to be more willing to let the oil flow, which means we could hypothetically tariff Canadian Petro without seeing a big increase in petro prices in the US. Furthermore, the tariff would have the added benefit of "artificially" inflating Saudi oil prices, which benefits the Saudis, Israel and the US. Additionally, if Trump can help negotiate peace in Ukraine, Russian oil comes off the grey/black markets and oil prices drop. Additionally, US exports account for ~20% of Canadian GDP, so lets not pretend that Canada has the leverage in this negotiation.

Ultimately, I think they'll figure out a win-win compromise without resorting to a trade war. Of course the left will portray that win-win compromise as a loss for Trump. Reminds me of the 2022 GOP who tried to run "stolen election" and "stolen election" solely and paid the price at the polls. But Trump and the GOP learned from that mistake, I don't see the Dems learning from this election.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

Wait a minute, you said Trudeau called Trumps bluff the first time. That is not true. Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and 10% on Aluminum in May of 2018 and it was lifted a year later in May of 2019 after reaching a deal.

Yes. The "deal" was that Canada was going to impose the same tariffs on us as Trump did on them, and a deal was struck to end both the tariffs.
If someone pulls a gun on me and demands my wallet, but I draw mine and say no and he leaves, do you think he "won" because I called his bluff?

"Canada imposed matching retaliatory tariffs on July 1, 2018."
"In July 2018, the Trump administration announced it would use a Great Depression-era program, the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), to pay farmers up to $12 billion, increasing the aid to $28 billion in May 2019.The USDA estimated that aid payments constituted more than one-third of total farm income in 2019 and 2020"
"Tariff negotiations in North America were relatively more successful, with the U.S. lifting the steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico on May 20, 2019"

tl/dr? - Trump imposed a tariff. Canada retaliated with matching tariffs. Trump backed down and dropped th tariffs. Canada then dropped their tariffs.

More of Canada is behind Trump now

Canadians don't vote on what their PM does.
What is different now that will make Trudeau buckle, when he called Trump's bluff and "won" last time?

Yeah, I only live in one area. Comprehend better Rob.

Yes. The area where gas is most expensive when you need to quote a high price, but an area where gas is cheapest when you need to quote a low price. Got it.

So it's OUR problem because drug addicts demand China Fentanyl and DEMAND that we import it illegally through Canada and Mexico. Makes since to me.

Whose drug addicts are they? OURS. We are a superpower, but you think China should fix our local drug problem? Drug addicts demand FENTANYL. They don't give a **** WHERE it comes from.
Welcome to addiction.
Lock every border down with a 1,000 foot wall. Shoot down any air traffic that tries to enter the country. Sink every boat.

How fast do you think drugs will again be available here?

None of us are psychic.

So you have no confidence in your beliefs. Cool.

Why, because you think the numbers would be more in your favor at that point? Make it 6 years.
The rebound can be however long it takes to reach a number.

You think he's going to "rebound" the SPR but it will take 2 years longer than he'll even be in office?
So the Nicks win the game if they sink a rebound ten seconds after the game is over?
Using words you don't understand the concept of, doesn't work so well.

Shiiiiit I would take photos of my ballot.

You think the stats of our economy have been faked for 3/4 of a century, but want me to believe a "photo" of your ballot as proof who you voted for?
I could post a ballot in a minute or two that shows Reagan was running against Biden, and I voted for Reagan.

Hold yourself to the standards you demand of others.

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

Ultimately, I think they'll figure out a win-win compromise without resorting to a trade war.

Honestly at least as far as Canada is concerned I don't think the tariffs are a sure thing...Trudeau is extremely unpopular for a whole bunch of decisions that hurt Canadians...so I think Trudeau will extremely receptive to talking about immigration reform...the threat may be plenty enough

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

They don't give a **** WHERE it comes from.

Yeah we shouldn't even bother shutting the primary pipeline fentanyl precursors...

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Yes. The "deal" was that Canada was going to impose the same tariffs on us as Trump did on them, and a deal was struck to end both the tariffs.
If someone pulls a gun on me and demands my wallet, but I draw mine and say no and he leaves, do you think he "won" because I called his bluff?

"Canada imposed matching retaliatory tariffs on July 1, 2018."
"In July 2018, the Trump administration announced it would use a Great Depression-era program, the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), to pay farmers up to $12 billion, increasing the aid to $28 billion in May 2019.The USDA estimated that aid payments constituted more than one-third of total farm income in 2019 and 2020"
"Tariff negotiations in North America were relatively more successful, with the U.S. lifting the steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico on May 20, 2019"

tl/dr? - Trump imposed a tariff. Canada retaliated with matching tariffs. Trump backed down and dropped th tariffs. Canada then dropped their tariffs.

Backed down huh... a year later. Doesn't sound like backing down when there was a deal reached after that year.

Canadians don't vote on what their PM does.
What is different now that will make Trudeau buckle, when he called Trump's bluff and "won" last time?

The fact that his own people aren't behind him... was that not clear?

Yes. The area where gas is most expensive when you need to quote a high price, but an area where gas is cheapest when you need to quote a low price. Got it.

Don't be a ****. I only talk about gas prices from one area that way it is consistent.

Whose drug addicts are they? OURS. We are a superpower, but you think China should fix our local drug problem? Drug addicts demand FENTANYL. They don't give a **** WHERE it comes from.
Welcome to addiction.
Lock every border down with a 1,000 foot wall. Shoot down any air traffic that tries to enter the country. Sink every boat.

How fast do you think drugs will again be available here?

Stop being stupid just to argue. The problem is that these countries are allowing the drugs to pass through their country. When they tighten up THEIR security "OUR" drug problem is less by default. Then we can concentrate on "OUR" drug problem from within our borders like it should be.

So you have no confidence in your beliefs. Cool.

No, I use facts.

You think he's going to "rebound" the SPR but it will take 2 years longer than he'll even be in office?
So the Nicks win the game if they sink a rebound ten seconds after the game is over?
Using words you don't understand the concept of, doesn't work so well.

Just playing your game by moving the goalpost. What, only you are allowed to move them?

You think the stats of our economy have been faked for 3/4 of a century, but want me to believe a "photo" of your ballot as proof who you voted for?

Not one ******* time have I EVER made that statement that our economy has been faked since 1947. Ok, stfu. Yes, I would post that photo. I have balls to do things where you apparently have none.

I could post a ballot in a minute or two that shows Reagan was running against Biden, and I voted for Reagan.

Hold yourself to the standards you demand of others.

Doubt it... you and I are of similar age and I was too young to vote for Reagan.

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

I could post a ballot in a minute or two that shows Reagan was running against Biden, and I voted for Reagan.

You mean when biden dropped out of the primaries because of plagiarism?

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

Except it would have to happen in one year, and we already discounted the COVID trough.
Disregard COVID. if the trend continued, 2020 would have seen a .01% increase.
Let's go nuts, and say that it surged and matched the highest growth we had seen under Trump: 6%.
That gives him an average of 4.66% per year growth.

That would lower Bidens first-year growth to only 11% (again, taking COVID out of the math).
That leaves us with an estimated 15% year-over-year growth.

But I guess we have to agree whether trends can be an indicator of the future, or not.
You mentioned a lack of value in them, but then also discussed the overall trend of mfg jobs leaving the country going back to 1990's.

Growth in what? MFG jobs, imports, exports, GDP, overall employment???

I didn't cite a trend, I cited jobs lost, which you're now trying to twist and distort into a discussion about trends in an attempt to discredit me. Clearly you misinterpreted the trend as growth in MFG jobs trended back up after Covid. And TrumpCo attempt to "equalize" our trade arrangement with China, we'll see MFG jobs continue to grow. Again all credit to the Biden administration for not reversing the tariffs.

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

Pretty much all of biden's "great numbers" came from the covid lockdown bounce back...

Ehhh, alot of them come from inflation too. Ironically, Biden's "bad numbers" come from inflation too. TBH, can we even call these "Biden's numbers" given that Biden has clearly been checked out for the majority of his term?