**The MLB Thread**

[endofdays89 5,000+ posts]

Are you originally from Cleveland? You are the spitting image of bigfagtheory. We can put statistical data in front of you, and you still deny it, and respond with no substance other then calling the other person stupid. You do know Tim Kurkijan always uses stats to back up his assertions? The stats show at this point in their careers, Jeter is only marginally better then Larkin. You have got to be kidding me if you think Jeter can maintain his level of play till age 43. In order for Jeter to get to 3000 in the next two seasons, he'll need to have at least 230+ hits in each of the next two seasons. His career high is 219. Even Tim Kurkijan knows that. If he does finish his career with 3000 hits, that puts him somewhere around the level of Robin Yount. Not a top 20 player. Jeter hasn't even been the best SS in the AL. Alex Rodriguez is clearly a better SS. Nomar had better seasons. Hell from 04-07 Carlos Guillen had better seasons. Now before your panties get bunched and you go on some tangent, the difference between them and Jeter is Jeter has maintained consistency as a good player. He is good but he is not an all-time great. I know you like to parrot ESPN but if Jeter put these numbers on any team other then the Yankees, he wouldn't be a top 20 player.

do you really think i meant exactly 2 years, when i said he would get his 3000th hit? No. You are one dumb *** dude to think that barry larkin was as good as jeter this far into their careers. Jeter has much better numbers no matter how you look at them. He is much more consistant as well. God, i bet you think someone from the tigers is the best player in baseball because you don't know shit about stats, probably only the players that are on the tigers.

 

[Slammed 5,000+ posts]

Red Sox got Penny

Mets are getting Lowe //content.invisioncic.com/y282845/emoticons/fyi.gif.9f1f679348da7204ce960cfc74bca8e0.gif

Castillo is blocking a trade for Orlando Hudson //content.invisioncic.com/y282845/emoticons/crap.gif.7f4dd41e3e9b23fbd170a1ee6f65cecc.gif

 

[mr Tibbs 10+ year member]

I hope Penny works out for the Sox and doesn't tank like Gagne did.

 

[Slammed 5,000+ posts]

It would be nice if the Mets get Lowe and resign Ollie

Santana

Lowe

Maine

Perez

Pelfrey

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[mr Tibbs 10+ year member]

I know the Red Sox were looking at bring back Lowe as well, but with them signing Penny I doubt that will happen. Lowe is on the downhill anyways.//content.invisioncic.com/y282845/emoticons/tongue.gif.6130eb82179565f6db8d26d6001dcd24.gif

 

[Slammed 5,000+ posts]

Mets like to sign downhill players...dont ya know?

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[Randy Savage 5,000+ posts]

Red Sox got Penny

Mets are getting Lowe //content.invisioncic.com/y282845/emoticons/fyi.gif.9f1f679348da7204ce960cfc74bca8e0.gif

Castillo is blocking a trade for Orlando Hudson //content.invisioncic.com/y282845/emoticons/crap.gif.7f4dd41e3e9b23fbd170a1ee6f65cecc.gif

Hope Penny works out, could be a steal if he does.

Mets need to sign another starter, if not both Lowe and Perez

 

[Lugnutz 10+ year member]

do you really think i meant exactly 2 years, when i said he would get his 3000th hit? No. You are one dumb *** dude to think that barry larkin was as good as jeter this far into their careers. Jeter has much better numbers no matter how you look at them. He is much more consistant as well. God, i bet you think someone from the tigers is the best player in baseball because you don't know shit about stats, probably only the players that are on the tigers.

I interpret you saying two years as meaning just that. I do not know that 2 years could mean 3-5. I posted the stats and I will post again the stats and you tell me where there are major difference. Your replies to anyone disagreeing with your parroting of ESPN is to insult them which indicates you are in way over your head. I originally didn't even make the Larkin reference. It was based on Bill James formula (Being a so-called stat guru, you should know who Bill James is) So Timmy, tell me how Jeter isn't only marginally better then Larkin:

Hits 2340, BA 295, HR 198, OBP 371, Slugging 444, OPS 815, OPS+ 116

Hits 2535, BA 316, HR 206, OBP 387, Slugging 458, OPS 835, OPS+ 120

Again, here are the players and the formula used by Bill James to do similarity scores:

1. Barry Larkin (901)

2. Alan Trammell (876)

3. Ryne Sandberg (870) *

4. Roberto Alomar (866)

5. Ray Durham (855)

6. Lou Whitaker (842)

7. Julio Franco (838)

8. Joe Torre (834)

9. Johnny Damon (824)

10. Bobby Doerr (818) *

Similarity Scores
Similarity scores are not my concept. Bill James introduced them nearly 15 years ago, and I lifted his methodology from his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106). To compare one player to another, start at 1000 points and then you subtract points based on the statistical differences of each player.

Batters

* One point for each difference of 20 games played.

* One point for each difference of 75 at bats.

* One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.

* One point for each difference of 15 hits.

* One point for each difference of 5 doubles.

* One point for each difference of 4 triples.

* One point for each difference of 2 home runs.

* One point for each difference of 10 RBI.

* One point for each difference of 25 walks.

* One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.

* One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.

* One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.

* One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage.

To this there is a positional adjustment. Each position has a value, and you subtract the difference between the two players position. James just uses primary position, but I computed an average position for players who had more than one primary position. (See Ernie Banks)

* 240 - Catcher

* 168 - Shortstop

* 132 - Second Base

* 84 - Third Base

* 48 - Outfield (James distinguishes, but I don't have that data incorporated at the moment)

* 12 - First Base

* 0 - DH

So please enlighten me stat wizard, on how Jeter is so much greater then Larkin.

 

[endofdays89 5,000+ posts]

hmmm........ .316 BA compared to .295. Ummmmm.... and he is better in every category you listed. Think about it, a 21 point difference in career BA is a huge difference.

 

[Lugnutz 10+ year member]

hmmm........ .316 BA compared to .295. Ummmmm.... and he is better in every category you listed. Think about it, a 21 point difference in career BA is a huge difference.

It equates out to 21 hits over 1000 at-bats. It's not a huge difference. Sure Jeter is marginally better in these categories (although he is very close in OPS+) so why is he so great and Larkin not? You're going to have to do better then that Timmy.

 

[Lugnutz 10+ year member]

I adjusted Jeter's averages to Larkin's AB's, and the difference in average equals 169 hits over an entire career. Too bad Larkin couldn't have hung around for 169 more hits and he would've been the greatest of all time. Larkin also had 939 walks to Jeter's 813 so he made up 126 of the 169 hits he lost to Jeter.

 

[Lugnutz 10+ year member]

Larkin even has an MVP award to boot and Jeter has none.

 

[Lugnutz 10+ year member]

He has 9 silver slugger awards to Jeter's 3.

 

[endofdays89 5,000+ posts]

Larkin even has an MVP award to boot and Jeter has none.

I'm not going to argue, jeter is clearly more consistant and better.

 

[Lugnutz 10+ year member]

I'm not going to argue, jeter is clearly more consistant and better.

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Maybe you need Peter Gammons to help you on this one. Timmy never backs done.

Speaking of consistency, in the 14 seasons in which Larkin recorded 100 games, His averaged only twice went outside the 282-319 range, his home runs ranged between 12-20 11 times (one year he hit 33)

Come on Timmy, I know you can do better. I know ESPN says how great Jeter is, but I don't see clearly. You most be related to bigfagtheory because statistical data can stare you in the face and you still can't see it.