Early-season team developments
posted: Friday, April 21, 2006
We are three weeks into the season and have a minute sample of what this season is about. But some teams have had some indications and answers that things can go right in 2006, beyond Chris Shelton, Alex Rios and Jonny Gomes being second, eighth and 10 in the majors in OPS.
New York Mets
The Mets have had two significant developments: First, Pedro Martinez is back pitching as a top-of-the-rotation guy, and and with a hint of his attitude. But, just as important, Tom Glavine is back to being one of the best left-handers in the game since he changed his style last summer, started using his curveball and pitching inside; since last July, Glavine has a 1.89 ERA, which ties him with Jose Contreras for the best in the game. Two Hall of Famers in front of what may be the best lineup in the league -- and Brian Bannister looking like the real deal -- gives them a lot of stability.
Second, while Carlos Delgado gives them a major presence in the middle of the order, the fact remains that their two best players are David Wright and Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran is a very good player, as well. If they don't have to trade Lastings Milledge to get a Barry Zito, then by the end of the season they will in many ways resemble the '96 Yankees, where their three best players are all under 25. Joel Sherman and I agree on a lot of things, none more strongly than watching Jose Reyes hit the ball in the gap may be the best thing to watch in sports.
Boston Red Sox
There are still a lot of questions that remain to be answered, beginning with David Wells' future and a potential hole in the rotation. But remember this: They won in 2004 because they had two great starting pitchers and a closer that was the postseason MVP. Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are throwing so well they may be the best 1-2 starters in the game, and Jonathan Papelbon has emerged as the closer, not to mention folk hero.
In time, they may be able to fill in a very deep bullpen the last two months with Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen and Edgar Martinez, which will lessen the need for a fifth starter should Wells be finished; all three have really started to pitch well, and if Delcarmen continues to throw first-pitch strikes he could be in Boston in June. When they left for Toronto on April 21, they were 7-0 in Beckett/Schilling starts, 4-5 in all other games.
The defense is better, Kevin Youkilis has become a very good player, and when Coco Crisp returns in early May their offense should be fine. But the plague of 2005 -- no top starter and a tattered bullpen -- has been cured.
Detroit Tigers
Watching Jim Leyland let Fernando Rodney work out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam Thursday in Oakland, one realized how brilliant Leyland is in building a team. Now as Todd Jones comes back, they have developed Rodney and Joel Zumaya for the seventh and eighth innings.
Shelton and Curtis Granderson are players, and now if they can keep Kenny Rogers, Carlos Guillen, Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez healthy, they will score and be well over .500.
Chicago White Sox
So, what do they have to prove? That Contreras' final two months was no fluke. Oh yes, they have some bullpen issues, but Brandon McCarthy has stepped forward and looked as if he's a dominant setup man in front of Bobby Jenks. Keep an eye on their Double-A staff, with lefties Tyler Lumsden and Ray Liotta, and right-hander Lance Broadway. They could get more help down the stretch.
Milwaukee Brewers
Ben Sheets is back. Chris Capuano is leading the league in quality starts and strikeouts, and Doug Davis and David Bush are fine. Jose Capellan looks like Francisco Cordero setting up for Derrick Turnbow.
But what's been so encouraging this first month is that J.J. Hardy has continued to play the way he did in the second half (you can be sure that the closeted sabreheads were telling Doug Melvin he didn't know what he was doing at this time last year), Prince Fielder has a .973 OPS after an 0-for-11 start and Rickie Weeks is beginning to hit. Milwaukee fans know that other than possibly Carlos Lee, this team will be together for awhile -- and they are getting the appropriate response. Do you think Rangers owner Tom Hicks ever thinks about where his franchise would be if he'd never have fired Melvin?
Toronto Blue Jays
They still don't know precisely how good they are because they haven't had Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and Ted Lilly go a month together in the rotation. If they don't start 80 games between them, they may not be able to stay with the Yankees and Red Sox.
Still, they have two very positive developments. First, Troy Glaus is throwing well and playing third base as he did as a young Angel, and he is a monster in the middle of the lineup. Second, Rios appears to be developing into the monster player Tim Wilken believed in when he drafted him; remember, Rios took 631 at-bats to hit five big-league homers, then hit five in 36 at-bats this season. When they have Rios, Vernon Wells and Reed Johnson in the outfield together, the defense is superb.
Arizona Diamondbacks
This is a strange season in which they are transitioning in some of their talented young players, yet playing with Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green and Craig Counsell. The starting pitching after Brandon Webb will be a work in progress -- maybe Dustin Nipper can help -- but with Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy at the corners and Jose Valverde closing the rebuilding has begun. Trading got All-Star catcher Johnny Estrada and Orlando Hudson for middle defense. If they can get enough starting pitching, they have enough positional talent to be in a three-, four- or five-team race in a division that might be weaker than last year.
Then you start thinking about Stephen Drew at short, Miguel Montero catching and Carlos Quentin, Chris Young and Justin Upton in the outfield.
Colorado Rockies
Look, this is a franchise that has never won 84 games, a modest goal. What was evident from the middle of spring training is that the players believe that they are not only competitive, but have reached a level of self-respect that they haven't for a long time.
The three front line pitchers -- Aaron Cook, Jason Jennings and Jeff Francis (up to 90-92 mph from 87-89 last year, with far better separation between fastball and offspeed stuff) -- are good, and closer Brian Fuentes is very good at the end of a deep bullpen. Todd Helton (.529 OBP) is healthy and off to a great season, and there's a lot to be said for so many of their players that came up through the Colorado farm system together. Clint Barmes, Cook, Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Cory Sullivan and Chin-hui Tsao all were together on the 2001 Salem team that won the Carolina League.
If they stay healthy, the players believe that will be competitive come Labor Day. Then GM Dan O'Dowd and the organization can decide which of their very talented young players -- 3B Ian Stewart, SS Troy Tulowitzki, pitchers Juan Morillo, Ubaldo Jimenez and Steven Register in Double-A, CF Dexter Fowler and LHP Franklin Morales on the A level -- to add to the equation.
No one should underestimate the significance of these players buying into what the Rockies are trying to accomplish. No one should underestimate the impact of the humidor and the fact that Coors Field now can have real baseball games (hence the 1.015-.969 Rockies' road-home OPS split).
First-Year Player Draft
The draft is six weeks away, but teams in the top half of the first round are concerned that this is the weakest draft since the disaster that was 2000, when other than No. 1 pick Adrian Gonzalez, Rocco Baldelli at No. 6 and Chase Utley midway through the round, the draft was a waste of time -- and money. After Gonzalez, now starting after being traded twice, it went Adam Johnson, Luis Montanez, Mike Sirotka, Justin Wayne, Baldelli, Best Buy's Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland, Mark Phillips, Joe Torres ...
The Royals say they are weighing several choices with the top spot, but most likely will take North Carolina LHP Andrew Miller. "After that," says an official of one team in the middle of the round, "there are six or several players we know will be gone in the first 10 picks, and they're hardly sure things -- Miller, Brandon Morrow (RHP, Cal), Brad Lincoln (RHP, Houston), Evan Longoria (SS, Long Beach State), Chris Marrero (3B, Monsignor Pace HS, Opa Locka, Fla.) and Clayton Kershaw (LHP, Highland Park HS, Dallas). By the middle of the round, we'll be looking at guys who in most years would be second rounders." There may be Luke Hochevar, the right-handed pitcher from the University of Tennessee who turned down more than $2.5M in an agent firestorm and now will have to try to re-prove his value in the Northern League if the Dodgers don't come to a deal with Scott Boras.
Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes has the 11th pick, and may not have anyone on his board comparable to the four he and Red Sox amateur scouting director Jason McLeod selected in the first and sandwich rounds, CF Jacoby Ellsbury, RHP Craig Hansen, SS Jed Lowrie and RHP Clay Bucholtz. Of course last year's draft may be remembered as one of the best ever.
