Current events discussion

[Buck 5,000+ posts]

Fine, but basically it's just doing what the woke LGBTQxyz crowd does and attempts to redefine words to suit their narrative.

No, it's not lol. Slavery is being forced to work against your will, and that's the whole idea. Maybe there's a misunderstanding, but I'm not redefining words.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

So if it was on the way up starting with Trump then Biden inherited it from Trump right? I guess the Biden admin kept in place those things that were causing the rise under Trump? If the trend was it continuing to rise then the Biden admin would have to had kept Trumps policies in place. Take out the COVID dip and it looks like a straight shot to me. So, let's thank Trump everyone, come on, let's thank him.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

Yeah well this isn't 2018. You can live in the past if you like afraid of what the future brings but we are moving forward. I'm not to worried about what the current democratic government has to say on its way out. I will look forward to what is going to happen after Jan. 20th.

Right. And since it got cold last winter, we can't be sure it'll get cold this winter.

And since Trudeau imposed retaliatory tariffs that shut Trump down last time, we can't be sure he will do it again, even though he has already said he will.
He might have met with Trump and said "Sir, I agree that you are the smartest man in the world, smarter than most of your professors. You know more about everyhting than everybody. Especially me."

Or he might just once again tell Trump to **** off, and have another year of prosperity where their exports increase like they did the last time Trump fucked around and found out.

When leaders of other countries point out what Biden is doing before he leaves the white house it makes it even more clear how biased you lefties are. The whole world can see what the Biden administration is doing except you lefties. Why is that?

Mexico literally laughed in Trump's face with this round of threats. Biden is leaving office. Who gives a **** whet they think at this point? They certainly respected him more than they did (or do) Trump.

I bet you gas prices come down in the U.S. to the mid $2 range or less depending on area.

That's a weak bet considering they are already there and have been dropping since June.
Make a REAL bet.

I bet you groceries come down as a result of lower fuel prices in ALL AREAS.

I'll take that bet, even though they have also been dropping since June.

I bet you lumber comes down when Canada does what is ask of them causing construction cost to come down.

"does what is asked of them". Explain before I accept/reject the bet.

I bet you the SPR rebounds greatly.

Why does that concern you? YOU were the one who said using it was illegal, and that selling the reserves off meant nothing as far as gas prices are concerned.
Describe "greatly" and tell me what price point he will be making this potential $24 BILLION dollar purchase at.
I assume by "rebounds" you mean a quick purchase (like in his first year), and not spread over 4 years.

Terms of the bet?
I win - You admit Trump did a good job and that you judged him to harshly.
You win - I vote Democrat in the next election.
Deal?

Terrible deal. My payout is instantly verifiable.
Yours is on your word, which carries no weight at all on this forum.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

So if it was on the way up starting with Trump then Biden inherited it from Trump right? I guess the Biden admin kept in place those things that were causing the rise under Trump? If the trend was it continuing to rise then the Biden admin would have to had kept Trumps policies in place. Take out the COVID dip and it looks like a straight shot to me. So, let's thank Trump everyone, come on, let's thank him.

View attachment 61641

The green line says no. It started to fall off in early 2019, 10 months before COVID hit.
Notice how the lines almost intersect and then open up like a sideways "V"?
That indicates decline from early 2019 right until it hit the COVID cliff.

If you were betting on growth, would you risk money on the trend this line indicates?
No investor would go in, unless they were shorting. They would wait until hit hits a support and starts to rebound, then jump on board.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Right. And since it got cold last winter, we can't be sure it'll get cold this winter.

Really, comparing weather to human actions. Really Rob?

And since Trudeau imposed retaliatory tariffs that shut Trump down last time, we can't be sure he will do it again, even though he has already said he will.
He might have met with Trump and said "Sir, I agree that you are the smartest man in the world, smarter than most of your professors. You know more about everyhting than everybody. Especially me."

Cause change is just a theory right? If a person does something once that is all they will ever do right?

Or he might just once again tell Trump to **** off, and have another year of prosperity where their exports increase like they did the last time Trump fucked around and found out.

Clearly that is his plan since he has met with Trump. By the way, he said it was a good talk with Trump.

Mexico literally laughed in Trump's face with this round of threats. Biden is leaving office. Who gives a **** whet they think at this point? They certainly respected him more than they did (or do) Trump.

Show me the proof of that claim.

That's a weak bet considering they are already there and have been dropping since June.
Make a REAL bet.

False, it's back up over $3 here.

I'll take that bet, even though they have also been dropping since June.

Ok cool.

"does what is asked of them". Explain before I accept/reject the bet.

Are you not up on current events? Even the legacy media has been talking about what Trump wants Canada to do.

Why does that concern you? YOU were the one who said using it was illegal, and that selling the reserves off meant nothing as far as gas prices are concerned.
Describe "greatly" and tell me what price point he will be making this potential $24 BILLION dollar purchase at.
I assume by "rebounds" you mean a quick purchase (like in his first year), and not spread over 4 years.

I mean the SPR is at like 390M BBL currently and will go up greatly from that.

Terrible deal. My payout is instantly verifiable.
Yours is on your word, which carries no weight at all on this forum.

Ahhh, already got your way out of the bet. That's fine.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

The green line says no. It started to fall off in early 2019, 10 months before COVID hit.
Notice how the lines almost intersect and then open up like a sideways "V"?
That indicates decline from early 2019 right until it hit the COVID cliff.

View attachment 61642

If you were betting on growth, would you risk money on the trend this line indicates?
No investor would go in, unless they were shorting. They would wait until hit hits a support and starts to rebound, then jump on board.

knock it off Rob. There are ups and down through the whole graph. The point is, it was trending up and would have continued up.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

Really, comparing weather to human actions. Really Rob?

Humans are as predictable as the weather, especially when it comes to money.
Honestly, what make you think Trudeau will just roll over this time when he "won" last time?
He's being hit with the same exact threats.

Cause change is just a theory right? If a person does something once that is all they will ever do right?

People change all the time. 99.99% make intentional change with improvement as the goal.
Do you buy a new car hoping it will be shittier than the last one? Do you buy new subs hoping they will underperform?
Do you think CEOs change a business in the hopes it will reduce profit?

Trudeau trumped Trump last time, AND their exports went UP.
Why would YOU expect him to buckle under THIS time? Honest question.

Clearly that is his plan since he has met with Trump. By the way, he said it was a good talk with Trump.

And you assume Trudeau saying "good talk" is that he buckled under to Trump's threats?

Show me the proof of that claim.

“For every tariff, there will be a response in kind,” Sheinbaum wrote in a letter sent to Trump. The text was released by the Mexican Embassy Tuesday morning, which said the economic fallout of a trade war would harm shared enterprises, particularly automotive companies that operate in both countries.
“Among Mexico’s main exporters to the United States are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which arrived in Mexico 80 years ago. Why impose a tariff that would jeopardize them? Such a measure would be unacceptable and would lead to inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico,” she added, according to a translated version of the letter provided by the Mexican Embassy."

False, it's back up over $3 here.

I guess you already forgot the part of your challenge where you said "depending on area".
Now you move the goalpost to YOUR gas station?
You should go to Kansas where it's $2.22/gallon

or maybe Owensboro, where it's $2.35

Ok cool.
Are you not up on current events? Even the legacy media has been talking about what Trump wants Canada to do.

Go ahead and share. All I've seen is that he intends to impose blanket tariffs unless other countries fix our drug problem.

I mean the SPR is at like 390M BBL currently and will go up greatly from that.

That's too vague to bet on. Define "greatly", and give a time frame for "rebound".
You can give a range, but don't say "anything from current state to full", or "sometime in the next four years, directly or indirectly".
Make a it a reasonably narrow range.

Ahhh, already got your way out of the bet. That's fine.

You want me to take a bet where there is no proof of your paying off if you lose?
**** no.

I offered you a $10,000 bet where the money would be held in escrow by an attorney of YOUR choosing, and you were afraid to take it.
I'm not taking a bet where you won't even pay off.

knock it off Rob. There are ups and down through the whole graph. The point is, it was trending up and would have continued up.

Trend lines are created across peaks and valleys. Yours tries to strike an average, and even then it shows where the decline starts and continues.
If you put your trend line across the peaks, the decline from 2019-on will look even worse.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Humans are as predictable as the weather, especially when it comes to money.
Honestly, what make you think Trudeau will just roll over this time when he "won" last time?
He's being hit with the same exact threats.

People change all the time. 99.99% make intentional change with improvement as the goal.
Do you buy a new car hoping it will be shittier than the last one? Do you buy new subs hoping they will underperform?
Do you think CEOs change a business in the hopes it will reduce profit?

That IS my point, people change all the time. You are speaking as if things will continue as they did under Biden.

Trudeau trumped Trump last time, AND their exports went UP.
Why would YOU expect him to buckle under THIS time? Honest question.

Because, like half of this country, Trump is also tired of the U.S. getting the raw end.

And you assume Trudeau saying "good talk" is that he buckled under to Trump's threats?

I assume nothing. It means he was receptive.

“For every tariff, there will be a response in kind,” Sheinbaum wrote in a letter sent to Trump. The text was released by the Mexican Embassy Tuesday morning, which said the economic fallout of a trade war would harm shared enterprises, particularly automotive companies that operate in both countries.
“Among Mexico’s main exporters to the United States are General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford Motor Company, which arrived in Mexico 80 years ago. Why impose a tariff that would jeopardize them? Such a measure would be unacceptable and would lead to inflation and job losses in both the United States and Mexico,” she added, according to a translated version of the letter provided by the Mexican Embassy."
View attachment 61643



I guess you already forgot the part of your challenge where you said "depending on area".
Now you move the goalpost to YOUR gas station?
You should go to Kansas where it's $2.22/gallon
View attachment 61644

or maybe Owensboro, where it's $2.35
View attachment 61645

I don't live there Rob.

Go ahead and share. All I've seen is that he intends to impose blanket tariffs unless other countries fix our drug problem.

Our drug problem??? Other countries are ALLOWING these drugs through their countries to enter ours and it is OUR PROBLEM????

That's too vague to bet on. Define "greatly", and give a time frame for "rebound".

adverb
adverb: greatly

1. by a considerable amount; very much.

Up to 4 years.

You can give a range, but don't say "anything from current state to full", or "sometime in the next four years, directly or indirectly".
Make a it a reasonably narrow range.

Why do you think you get to dictate how people answer your questions. If you ask a question, let them answer and stfu.

We are at 390M. It should hit 700+M.

You want me to take a bet where there is no proof of your paying off if you lose?
**** no.

I offered you a $10,000 bet where the money would be held in escrow by an attorney of YOUR choosing, and you were afraid to take it.
I'm not taking a bet where you won't even pay off.

I don't want you to take any bet. It's too much hassle to deal with a person like you who will always find some way to weasel out of payment.

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Now this is an intelligent person. If you choose to watch it starts at 1:40.

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

No, it's not lol. Slavery is being forced to work against your will, and that's the whole idea. Maybe there's a misunderstanding, but I'm not redefining words.

You defined it as being bred to work. All species have evolved to work, even simple lifeforms like bacteria must work. Nobody is forcing me to work, working part of surviving. Unless you're suggesting that my "normal" state of existence should be to just lounge around and do nothing at all.

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

The green line says no. It started to fall off in early 2019, 10 months before COVID hit.
Notice how the lines almost intersect and then open up like a sideways "V"?
That indicates decline from early 2019 right until it hit the COVID cliff.

View attachment 61642

If you were betting on growth, would you risk money on the trend this line indicates?
No investor would go in, unless they were shorting. They would wait until hit hits a support and starts to rebound, then jump on board.

There are multiple ways to draw trendlines. Most people wouldn't even use a trend to project the future. They'd use moving averages or pitchforks. I could simply choose to use ~Nov 2019 as the second point to establish my trendline or use ~Oct 2017 to start the trendline.

 

[RobGMN Premium Member]

There are multiple ways to draw trendlines. Most people wouldn't even use a trend to project the future. They'd use moving averages or pitchforks. I could simply choose to use ~Nov 2019 as the second point to establish my trendline or use ~Oct 2017 to start the trendline.

Yes. It certainly can vary with your "trading strategy", but even if you start your trend years before Trump took office, and drew a trend line across the peaks, 2019 is a reversal of the rising trend.
Same if you used only from the day Trump took office and drew the line across the peaks.
The only way to say that the trend didn't reverse is to flip the chart upside down.

I've never seen anyone call a departure from a rising trend as "continuation of the trend" liek I am seeing on this forum.
Maybe it's just "alternative definitions", lol

 

[spokey9 5,000+ posts]

Honestly, what make you think Trudeau will just roll over this time when he "won" last time?

Because this time the tariffs are stated as being in response to illegal immigration...immagration is something Trudeau is under fire from even his own party for in Canada

 

[ThxOne Premium Member]

Yes. It certainly can vary with your "trading strategy", but even if you start your trend years before Trump took office, and drew a trend line across the peaks, 2019 is a reversal of the rising trend.
Same if you used only from the day Trump took office and drew the line across the peaks.
The only way to say that the trend didn't reverse is to flip the chart upside down.

I've never seen anyone call a departure from a rising trend as "continuation of the trend" liek I am seeing on this forum.
Maybe it's just "alternative definitions", lol

Explain why you have departed from your averages trend and are only discussing peaks. The line has peaks and valleys so shouldn't you draw the line through the averages? Or the middle?

 

[Jimi77 Premium Member]

Nope. I very clearly stated that mfg jobs increases under Trump, but then began to decline in the first quarter of 2019, before COVID was even a thought. If they continued the decline at the same pace, it woulkd have erased about 50% of the original gains.
Cut COVID out of the equation, and there was not only growth under Biden, but it hit levels higher than the peak under Trump, and had a higher growth rate.

You've stated numerous times mfg jobs decreased under Trump. This is the first time you've said anything about mfg jobs decreasing in the first quarter of 2019 (that I'm aware of - I do generally ignore any post you & THX are involved in). There is no reason to believe that mfg jobs were bound to continue decreasing nor any reason to expect mfg jobs to only increase.

Not disingenuous at all. Exports saw a .01% growth in 2019 over 2018. That had nothing to do with COVID, which hit in Feb 2020.
If you take out the COVID "valley", there was growth under Trump, but it exploded under Biden, in comparison.
2017-2018 saw 6% export growth.
2018-2019 saw .01% growth.
Kill the COVID valley and resume in 2021 where it tanked.
2021-2022 saw 17% growth
2022-2023 saw 1.1% growth
2024 *estimate 32% growth
2024 is not over, but even if Oct, Nov, Dec each only hit the LOWEST month we've had, it will put us at a 32% growth over 2023

Growth (in everything) exploded 21-22 under Biden due to pent up demand post lock down. And what growth are we talking about - mfg jobs, exports, imports, GDP? I have no idea what any of those stats are in reference to. The charts below are kinda useless too. Is that imports, exports? TBH, I don't even care if imports or exports are up or down, you just happened to cite a source that was clearly manipulating those stats to paint Trump in the worst possible light. If imports increase due to mfg jobs returning to the US, then I'm fine with that.

-View attachment 61638
View attachment 61639
View attachment 61640
This is data from the the World Bank and US Census Bureau.
I'm thinking they aren't making these numbers up just to make Biden look good/Trump look bad.


I don't get my info from media sources. All of the economic data I share comes from verifiable sources, like the one above. More often than not, it's direct from the sources like Bureau of Labor Statistics, DJIA, NASDAQ, census.gov (like you did), etc.

No you clearly quoted a source that specifically included the Covid lockdown because that would paint Trump in the worst possible light and Biden in the best possible light.

"U.S. total annual imports increased 12% under Trump as opposed to 32% under Biden. But at the same time, the US’s total annual exports grew by less than 4% between 2016 and 2020 while increasing 41% from 2020 to 2023."

Other people here choose to argue with data from memes that they haven't fact-checked, or claims they heard other people make (also not fact-checked).

I've been accused dozens of times for being a "liar" when I share data, and have challenged people dozens of times to show where I "lied", but not a single person has met the challenge.
This is a wholly anonymous forum, except for when people like Thxone try to dox (doxx?) me. I can, but I don't sling bullshit here.
Unlike others I don't see a benefit in it, despite the anonymity.

You did sling BS - see above quote. I've seen you post numerous times "MFG jobs were down under Trump" when in reality what happened is MFG jobs were up under Trump until Covid. And now you're trying to play some BS game where Trump's pre-covid gains don't count because they didn't straight up month after month.

I tried these, but they just take me to the page where I can research all data points, build my own charts and spreadsheets, etc.
Can you screensnip the data from your pdf and share it? Otherwise, I don't know what you were wanting to show here.

That's the point, that's where the data comes from. If you want to see month to month or year to year changes, you can calculate anytime frame from that dataset. Whoever you quoted either is too stupid to back out the effect of Covid and therefore is unqualified to comment or they purposely left included Covid to fit the "Orange Man Bad/Biden Best POTUS Ever" narrative, which forced me to do the math.