who here plays the stock market?

[AcidicDreams 10+ year member]

Chartist and day traders are looking for fools gold... Chartists because of the first law of efficient markets and day traders because they kill their returns with fees and commissions

the only proper way to pick stocks is either diversify with indexes or spend the time reading annual reports to estimate a companies intrinsic value and forecast a reasonable estimate of earnings growth, then buy it when the market undervalues the stock. EDIT: and hold it indefinitely...

 

[surftb15 10+ year member]

I noticed this weeks volume was very abnormal. I thought it was due to insider trades. It confirmed my previous hypothesis about beating earnings.
I don't think it will go below $30 as that is Buffet's buy-in point. Unless the market doesn't have a memory or is too impatient.

I don't have the experience to know how this will play out.

So...you would assume my 32.50 call is pretty much dead. I do.

the day chart shows good volume EOD (End of day), along with a reversal on the day chart .

Weekly chart is bearish.

with that being said, beginning of next week will go one way or another.

personally, i say itll pull back a bit, then go into MOMO zone.

 

[Flipx99 5,000+ posts]

Chartist and day traders are looking for fools gold... Chartists because of the first law of efficient markets and day traders because they kill their returns with fees and commissions
the only proper way to pick stocks is either diversify with indexes or spend the time reading annual reports to estimate a companies intrinsic value and forecast a reasonable estimate of earnings growth, then buy it when the market undervalues the stock.

Law of effecient markets. I lol.

1st of all, it's a hypothesis, not a law. Secondly, in comes in forms. Are you saying all information has already been priced in? I don't think so. Too much insider trading for that. Fees = commissions, and can be dimished with volume. For instance 19.99 on a $50k trade is mere pennies.

I do agree, it is swinging for the fences, but the techicals can supplment a value based trading strategy.

IMO ETFs > Individual stocks; I can only pick the sector, not the superstar

 

[Flipx99 5,000+ posts]

the day chart shows good volume EOD (End of day), along with a reversal on the day chart .
Weekly chart is bearish.

with that being said, beginning of next week will go one way or another.

personally, i say itll pull back a bit, then go into MOMO zone.

Why would it increase invalue if negative 2nd Qtr guidance is given?

The best play here would be the 30/32.50 straddle, unfortunaley, I can't afford it.

 

[surftb15 10+ year member]

why would it increase?

let me post two charts,

hold on

 

[Flipx99 5,000+ posts]

a) Goldman Sachs owns LOW options, they pump it every Friday on expiry.

b) Earnings release is on Monday, contrarians "bet" that it beats earnings.

Of course, I am just hypothesizing.

 

[surftb15 10+ year member]

okay look at this

 

[surftb15 10+ year member]

Look at the yellow trend line - held support at $ 30.50 on the bottom. Next, its forming an ascending triangle. If it continues in that pattern, it will break out.

MACD crossed also.

Now look at volume EOD. big push, which turned the CMF positive

 

[Flipx99 5,000+ posts]

But here is what I felt what happened.

Yesterday we where slaughtered by wal-marts weak same store sales report, which killed the previous day's rally. Now we should be ready to rebound after the over-reaction.

Is that what this chart is saying as well?

 

[Flipx99 5,000+ posts]

The biggest question is, will it break out by Friday?

 

[Flipx99 5,000+ posts]

Do you have AIM, I think it may be better to continue the discussion there if you would like.

 

[surftb15 10+ year member]

look at this-

 

[surftb15 10+ year member]

CMF is negative, money going away from the stock.

Volume is not average at all.

MACD are not in the MOMO Zone, and there is a bearsish harami formed.

with that being said, what will happen on monday>

it cna go either way, and we will know after amateur hour.

 

[Flipx99 5,000+ posts]

The Feb bump was caused by Buffet

 

[AcidicDreams 10+ year member]

Law of effecient markets. I lol.

1st of all, it's a hypothesis, not a law. Secondly, in comes in forms. Are you saying all information has already been priced in? I don't think so. Too much insider trading for that. Fees = commissions, and can be dimished with volume. For instance 19.99 on a $50k trade is mere pennies.

I do agree, it is swinging for the fences, but the techicals can supplment a value based trading strategy.

IMO ETFs > Individual stocks; I can only pick the sector, not the superstar

I am talking about the weakest form, and there has been many people who have done Ph.D thesis's on the subject and in the end the weak form is essentially true.

#2 a 19.99 commission is pennies on a 50k transaction, but then lets say you do 100 transactions a year, which I would expect is pretty minimal for a "day trader", then 19.99 x 100 = $1,999. Now that may seem insignificant as well until you start compounding 2k a year at 11% over 30 years... it's 5.6mil... not an insignificant amount...

of course if you are making money the whole time I suppose you can ignore that. but just how often are day traders right?

too many investors forget about fees and commissions, and lose REAL value over time.

I'd rather buy a SOLID company that is undervalued and hold it indefinitely... a company with solid management will grow value by either re-investing it's retained earnings or spinning them off as dividends, which can be used to purchase more of the stock...