Blazing Saddles time is my predix. Obama wins. He'll get enough Electoral College votes in the Southeast US to take the election. The Demos win their usual West Coast, Northeast and Upper Midwest states, then break the GOP stranglehold in the old Confederacy states is how it seems it will go to me.
What happens to the political spectrum:
The formerly monolithic Right fragments into the Christian fundamentalists, anti-tax conservatives, neocons, libertarians, foreign policy hawks and traditional conservatives. The current GOP funding levels out West show them as broke as a bum on the street. With ideological differences, a lack of money and a poor legacy left by Bush, the Right gets marginalized.
The Left, which faded into obscurity following the RFK assassination in 1968 followed by McGovern's rout by Nixon in 1972, coalesces again. The old "power abhors a vacuum" principle kicks in and with the Right in flight plus the end of the Clintons, who were faux-liberal at best, means we see progressives do well...for a while. Later on schisms will develop on the Left but for that to happen, they have to come together first.
The rise and fall of the New Dealers (1932-1968) and the Reagan Republicans (1980-2008) were generational trends. A "New Left" emerges, driven by the current hot topic issues of global warming/environmental concerns, the occupation of Iraq and economic problems. How long this "New Left" keeps the pole position in American politics depends on how quickly or slowly their policies work. The American electorate wants change but they are not going to be patient. The barometer of that impatience will be the 2010 midterm elections.
Bush's damage to this nation is HUGE. Record budget/trade deficits, record lows for the value of the US dollar, military problems affecting our readiness/weapons acquisitions due to Iraq, crumbling infrastructure, slovenly regulation/administration, lousy overseas image, possible war crimes, obvious corruption and hypocrisy, a divided and embittered electorate, these are negative legacies that will take a decade of hard positive works to overcome. Will we get that outcome?
In order to get out of the wose mess of the 20th century, the Great Depression, it took a mobilized and committed nation brought about due to our entry into World War II. The 9-11 unity in the US dissolved as the war/occupation in Iraq was shown to be based on lies and rigged intel, while the actual ops in Iraq went into quagmire mode at a VERY high cost in dollars. December 7, 1941 brought unity of purpose to all while 9-11 became a dividing point in a relatively short time. We are far behind the curve in relation to the Greatest Generation and the Demo New Dealer leaders of that era.
We're in a deep hole folks and the First Rule Of Holes is when you find yourself in one, you quit digging...LOL! I believe we'll get to that stage but then the hard work of filling the hole begins and then we'd better be thinking about building a mountain as the rest of the world is not standing still. China and India, who have close to half of the planet's population, are poised to become economic powerhouses rivalling Europe and the US. I'd worry less about religious fundamentalism in the Middle East and more about long term economic trends since the situation is one of "It's the economy stupid!". Religious passions come and go but money retains it's grip.
The odds of a world war are practically non-existent. The US and it's primary naval allies (Japan and the UK) ensure the control of the seas rest in our hands. The US Navy has more combat power than the rest of the world's navies put together. The USAF has a massive advantage in stealth tech as well as the newest 5th-gen fighters to ensure air supremacy anywhere it needs it. The only other nation with a nuclear arsenal comparable in size to the US is Russia and with new anti-missile tech coming along, smaller arsenals are impotent, so all that needs to happen to avoid a full-scale nuclear exchange is for there to be no massive deterioration in American-Russian relations. I see nothing more than some bickering on the sidelines at most with the Russians.
The real arena of competition will be economic. The engine that will drive the next decade will be nanotech. The law of unintended consequences will kick in but the near-future (5-10 years) should see an upsurge in productivity, energy generation and spreading wealth for a good part of the global population. Can tech outrace political ineptitude to bring better days? That's the billion dollar question...literally!
Rick